Some food producers have been nationalised; price controls often leave manufacturers operating at a loss. Some price rises have recently been authorised, but manufacturers say it is impossible to maintain normal output with such stop-go policies. The prospects for a change of course are gloomy.
Bondholders may well keep getting paid. Al cierre del segundo trimestre las cuentas por pagar comerciales de Venezuela sobrepasan los El gobierno insiste en que tiene los medios y la voluntad de pagarle a los tenedores de bonos internacionales. Pocos observadores esperan que ocurra lo contrario. Aun cuando Venezuela siga solvente con sus obligaciones financieras, ya se encuentra en mora con otras deudas.
Un efecto colateral inesperado ha sido el fuerte incremento en la demanda de agua de coco, que los venezolanos normalmente mezclan con el whisky. Los sortarios que tienen amigos o familiares en el extranjero les piden ayuda de emergencia. Ya ha instituido el cierre nocturno de la frontera con Colombia, y planea tomar las huellas digitales de la gente para evitar las compras "excesivas". English to Spanish: America and Islamic State. Economist Sept. On September 23rd America led air strikes in Syria against both the warriors of Islamic State IS and a little-known al-Qaeda cell, called the Khorasan group, which it claimed was about to attack the West.
A president who has always seen his main mission as nation-building at home is now using military force in six countries—Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia. Preventing the group from carving out a caliphate means, at the very least, ensuring that neither of these two countries affords it a haven see article. But more than the future of IS is at stake in the streets of Raqqa and Mosul.
It is a test that he has been failing until now. IS et al The sense that America is locked in relative decline has been growing in recent years, as it has languished under the shadow of the financial crisis and two long, difficult wars. Why should a newly rich country like China take lectures about how to run its affairs from a president who struggles even to get his own budget through? America, meanwhile, seems swamped by the forces of disorder, either unable or unwilling to steady a world that is spinning out of control.
IS embodies this frightening trend. It is, in the jargon, a non-state actor, and it thrives on chaos. With each new humiliation of the governments in Iraq and Syria, it has accumulated more wealth, territory and recruits. Its rise has also reflected American policy. First, the poorly thought-out intervention of George W. When Syrians rose up against the regime of Bashar Assad, the president stood back in the hope that things would sort themselves out—leaving Mr Assad free to commit atrocities against his own people.
About , Syrians have died and 10m have been driven from their homes. Denied early American support, the moderate Syrian opposition has fragmented, leaving the field to the ruthless and well-organised IS. Standing back has not worked well elsewhere in the world, either. He wanted the United States to be seen less as a unilateral bully, more as the leader of world opinion. Yet when America stepped back, its allies stepped back, too. The countries that most eagerly came forward were its rivals, such as Russia and China.
IS has induced a change of heart among the American people. Before vicious extremists seized the city of Mosul and began to cut off Western heads on social media, Americans doubted the merit of further military action in the Middle East. When they realised that IS threatened them directly, they began to demand protection. Mr Obama therefore has a chance not just to strike a blow for order in the Middle East, but also to give the declinists pause.
From axis of evil to network of death He has brute force on his side. The disastrous mismanagement of post-invasion Iraq has tended to eclipse the overwhelming potency of American firepower at the beginning. In six short weeks in the spring of America and its allies defeated the , troops of Saddam Hussein with the loss of only American lives. Never in history has a single country had such military dominance.
It has not suddenly evaporated. The bigger question is whether Mr Obama can carry off delicate diplomacy. The lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan is that firepower alone will not prevail. Indeed, if America comes to be seen by Sunni Arabs as nothing more than a Shia air force, strikes will only bind IS to the local people.
If he is to win the argument in Iraq and Syria, Mr Obama needs coalitions and partnerships. For that he must get the diplomacy right. So far he has done well. He insisted on the replacement of Nuri al-Maliki, the Shia-chauvinist former prime minister of Iraq, with Haider al-Abadi, who is making efforts to bring Sunnis into government. He sent John Kerry, his secretary of state, to recruit regional Sunni powers such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan, to try to persuade Sunnis in Iraq and Syria that he is not taking sides against their branch of Islam.
There is much more for Mr Obama to do. The coalition-building is not complete. Holding the alliance together will require patience, flexibility and a judicious mix of bullying and seduction. Mr Obama will have to put in many more long hours on the telephone with world leaders than he has done so far. And even if he succeeds in substantially destroying IS, new horrors may emerge from the ensuing vacuum if he does not help benign local forces to fill it.
Although the mission to stop IS will be long and hard, it is one that no other nation could even contemplate. Mr Obama is right to relaunch it. Now he must see it through. Por lo pronto, los EEUU lucen empantanados ante las fuerzas del desorden; sin capacidad o voluntad de enderezarle el rumbo a un mundo que gira sin control. El EI pone de manifiesto esta tendencia preocupante.
En la jerga, se trata de un "actor no estatal" que prospera con el caos. Cerca de Por lo tanto Obama no solo tiene la oportunidad de atacar para restaurar el orden en el medio oriente, sino de detener el declive. Del eje del mal a la red de la muerte Tiene la fuerza bruta a su favor. En tan solo seis semanas durante la primavera de , los EEUU y sus aliados derrotaron a los Y no se ha evaporado de repente.
Si Obama quiere ganar en Siria y en Iraq, debe buscar coaliciones y alianzas. Para lo cual debe conducir bien su diplomacia. Hasta ahora lo ha hecho lo correcto. Los norteamericanos van a quejarse de su papel de superpotencia. Ahora tiene que llevarla hasta el final. The great inventions of the 19th century, from electric power to the internal-combustion engine, transformed the human condition. Yet for workers who lived through the upheaval, the experience of industrialisation was harsh: full of hard toil in crowded, disease-ridden cities.
The modern digital revolution—with its hallmarks of computer power, connectivity and data ubiquity—has brought iPhones and the internet, not crowded tenements and cholera. But, as our special report explains, it is disrupting and dividing the world of work on a scale not seen for more than a century. Vast wealth is being created without many workers; and for all but an elite few, work no longer guarantees a rising income.
Computers that can do your job and eat your lunch So far, the upheaval has been felt most by low- and mid-skilled workers in rich countries. The incomes of the highly educated—those with the skills to complement computers—have soared, while pay for others lower down the skill ladder has been squeezed. In half of all OECD countries real median wages have stagnated since Countries where employment is growing at a decent clip, such as Germany or Britain, are among those where wages have been squeezed most. In the coming years the disruption will be felt by more people in more places, for three reasons.
First, the rise of machine intelligence means more workers will see their jobs threatened. The effects will be felt further up the skill ladder, as auditors, radiologists and researchers of all sorts begin competing with machines. Technology will enable some doctors or professors to be much more productive, leaving others redundant. Second, wealth creation in the digital era has so far generated little employment. Entrepreneurs can turn their ideas into firms with huge valuations and hardly any staff.
Third, these shifts are now evident in emerging economies. Now, as the costs of labour rise and those of automated manufacturing fall, Foxconn is swapping workers for robots. Moving the barely literate masses from fields to factories has become harder. But, thanks to technological change, its educated elite is now earning high salaries selling IT services to foreigners.
The digital revolution has made an industrial one uneconomic. Bridging the gap None of this means that the digital revolution is bad for humanity. Far from it. This newspaper believes firmly that technology is, by and large, an engine of progress. IT has transformed the lives of billions for the better, often in ways that standard income measures do not capture. Communication, knowledge and entertainment have become all but free. Few workers would want to go back to a world without the internet, the smartphone or Facebook, even for a pay increase.
Technology also offers new ways to earn a living. Etsy, an online marketplace for arts and crafts, enables hobbyists to sell their wares around the world. Uber, the company that is disrupting the taxi business, allows tens of thousands of drivers to work as and when they want. Nonetheless, the growing wedge between a skilled elite and ordinary workers is worrying. Angry voters whose wages are stagnant will seek scapegoats: witness the rise of xenophobia and protectionism in the rich world. In poor countries dashed expectations and armies of underemployed people are a recipe for extremism and unrest.
Governments across the globe therefore have a huge interest in helping remove the obstacles that keep workers from wealth. The answer is not regulation or a larger state. High minimum wages will simply accelerate the replacement of workers by machines. Punitive tax rates will deter entrepreneurship and scare off the skilled on whom prosperity in the digital era depends. The best thing governments can do is to raise the productivity and employability of less-skilled workers. That means getting rid of daft rules that discourage hiring, like protections which make it difficult to sack poor performers.
It means better housing policy and more investment in transport, to help people work in productive cities such as London and Mumbai. It means revamping education. Not every worker can or should complete an advanced degree, but too many people in poor countries still cannot read and too many in rich ones fail to complete secondary school. In future, education should not be just for the young: adults will need lifetime learning if they are to keep up with technological change.
Yet although governments can mitigate the problem, they cannot solve it.
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As technology progresses and disrupts more jobs, more workers will be employable only at lower wages. The modest earnings of the generation that technology leaves behind will need to be topped up with tax credits or wage subsidies. That need not mean imposing higher tax rates on the affluent, but it does mean closing the loopholes and cutting the giveaways from which they benefit. In the 19th century, it took the best part of years for governments to make the investment in education that enabled workers to benefit from the industrial revolution. The digital revolution demands a similarly bold, but swifter, response.
Hay innovadores que pueden convertir sus ideas en empresas, con valuaciones enormes, y casi sin personal.
Con menos de Ahora, a medida que se elevan los costos laborales y caen los de la manufactura automatizada, Foxconn cambia trabajadores por robots. Lejos de ello. Los gobiernos del mundo entero tienen por lo tanto grandes incentivos para eliminar las trabas que mantienen a sus trabajadores en la pobreza. Aun cuando los gobiernos son capaces de atenuar el problema, no pueden solucionarlo.
The greenback has risen 6. It recently hit a six-year high against the yen and a two-year high against the euro. The trend reflects confidence in the prospects for the American economy, combined with worries about the health of the rest of the world. On October 7th the IMF lowered its forecast for global growth in to 3. Some of the biggest reductions were in Europe: it now expects France to grow just 0.
In contrast, the latest American data showed a , jump in jobs in September and a fall in the unemployment rate to 5. This relatively strong economic performance has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to push up interest rates next year while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will keep them low.
The carry trade has been difficult in recent years because nearly all countries in the rich world have held rates close to zero. But there is now a significant carry in the bond markets, where ten-year Treasury bonds yield one-and-a-half percentage points more than German bonds of the same maturity—a very wide gap by historical standards. A stronger economy also makes American companies more appealing to international investors.
That increases the demand for dollars. The big question, however, is how long this trend will last. As the chart shows, the latest rebound is small by the standards of the huge rallies in the early s and the late s. A strengthening dollar has its advantages for Americans. Foreign investors will be keener to hold Treasury bonds, making it easier for the government to fund its deficit. American tourists will find their money goes further on foreign trips. Imports will fall in price, keeping inflation down despite the healthy economy. But there are downsides too. A stronger dollar will have the opposite effect on the European and Japanese economies, making their exports cheaper and pushing up import prices.
Policymakers in both areas may welcome that, since they are struggling to generate growth and avoid deflation. Investors were also pouring money into emerging markets, enticed by their better growth prospects, leading some countries including Brazil to impose capital controls. A stronger dollar may now prompt capital to flow out of such countries just as fast. That will be a particular problem in places where governments or firms have borrowed significantly in dollars, since their revenues are denominated in local currency but their liabilities in dollars.
A prolonged dollar rally may also have political ramifications. A paper by Douglas Campbell of the University of California, Davis, found that the previous two big dollar surges led to a decline in manufacturing jobs. That provoked complaints from American politicians that first Japan and then China were unfairly suppressing their currencies to take American jobs. It is easy to imagine the same arguments resurfacing this time, with the obvious target being Germany. It already has a current-account surplus of 7.
Governments resisted calls for protectionism in the past, but their economies were stronger then. It may be harder to ward off in future, given that voters have already been angered by years of austerity and declines in inflation-adjusted wages. Algunas de las mayores reducciones se situaron en Europa: ahora se espera que Francia crezca apenas un 0.
Sin embargo existen desventajas. These can be department stores, cinemas or bookshops—anything that will fill a large space and lure customers past smaller boutiques. The idea is that a cinema-goer might pause to buy a leather jacket; and, in a lovely symbiosis, the monied youngsters who shop for clothes and sunglasses might decide to catch a film. Take a lift to the top floor of the new SM Aura shopping centre in Manila, and you will find not a cinema or a Neiman Marcus but an enormous call centre.
In the Philippines, the arrangement makes perfect sense. Like shops, call centres need young, middle-class people—but as workers, not customers. This one, run by Teleperformance, a multinational based in France, expects to get about walk-in job applicants a day. They also produce them, in huge quantities. Were there no call centres in the Philippines, there would be many fewer middle-class people, and hence fewer shopping centres.
This loosely defined industry now employs some 1. The country is especially strong in call centres: it has already overtaken India, even though India has about 12 times as many people see chart. Advertisement Yet the Philippines is also, probably, the end of the line. New technologies are poised to abolish many call-centre jobs and transform others.
At best, jobs will be created more slowly in the Philippines and India; at worst they will vanish. And it is likely that nowhere else will be able to talk its way out of poverty as they have done. There might never be another Manila. Companies put call centres in the Philippines for three reasons, says Alfredo Ayala of the Ayala Corporation, a conglomerate, who set up one of the first ones. And firms wanted to diversify beyond India. Americans, in particular, simply prefer talking to Filipinos than to Indians.
This is mostly the charming human delusion that everybody except oneself talks funny; yet there is something to it, says David Rizzo of Teleperformance. When American callers hear Indian accents, they know they are talking to a call centre in India. But they cannot quite place the Filipino accent.
To add to the confusion, Filipinos are experts on American culture, a legacy of military occupation in the early 20th century. American football and basketball fill the sports pages of Manila newspapers. Yet it creates a problem. Late morning in New York is midnight in the Philippines. The night shift has become so common that some karaoke bars in Manila stay open around the clock. Jobs with more civilised hours tout the fact as though it were a novelty. Night work is tough, say a dozen call-centre workers who have come off their shift at 7. They find it hard to sleep by day see article and see too little of their families.
For all that Americans prefer Filipino accents to Indian ones—which these Filipinos can impersonate, amusingly if not accurately—they still suspect they are talking to foreigners, and may be angry and rude. What do Americans say? Some officials and politicians claim that call-centre workers are behind a rise in HIV infections albeit from a low base. Workers often cram into shared flats, and their odd hours unmoor them from ordinary life.
A report by the University of the Philippines in found that call-centre workers in Manila were slightly more likely than other young people to take drugs, and were much more sexually active. More than half of the men reported having had casual sex—a quarter of those with other men. Women said the share was even lower. Overall, though, the call-centre explosion has been a colossal boon for Filipinos who speak good English. Experienced workers can often find managerial jobs. And though the night shift is hard, it is far better than being a maid in Saudi Arabia. But business-process outsourcing is catching up fast.
Many of the 1. Outsourcing firms are already building call centres in provincial cities in the Philippines, where employees are less picky. And other countries, some of them in better time zones, are trying to grab a share of the business. South Africa is especially keen. But they are likely to be disappointed, because the call-centre industry is on the verge of profound change. Much of the call-handling and data-processing work sent overseas is basic and repetitive, says Pat Geary of Blue Prism, a British technology firm.
When somebody challenges a gas-meter reading or asks to move an old phone number to a new SIM card, many databases must be updated, often by tediously cutting and pasting from one to another. Such routine tasks can often be done better by a machine. The firm has contracts with more than outfits. Increasingly, Western companies prod customers to get in touch via e-mail or online chat. Software robots can often handle these inquiries. The cleverest systems, such as the one Celaton, another British firm, has built for Virgin Trains, refer the most complex questions to human operators and learn from the responses.
The longer they run, the better they get. Software is also making call-centre workers more efficient. Software robots are only going to become faster, cleverer and cheaper. Sarah Burnett of Everest, a research firm, predicts that the most basic jobs will vanish as a result. Call-centre workers will still be needed, not for repetitive tasks, but to coax customers into buying other products and services.
That is a harder job, demanding better language skills. So automation might mean fewer jobs, or at least less growth, in India and the Philippines, but more jobs in America and Europe. This might already be happening. Outsourcing contracts that move work overseas have become rarer. Western banks are especially keen on repatriating work, says Arie Lewin of Duke University, an expert on outsourcing. This might work well or badly for the Philippines. Perhaps software robots will wipe out the dullest jobs, freeing Filipinos for more interesting conversations.
Lately, for example, qualified nurses have been in demand to advise American patients on whether their sneezes and rashes might be serious—one result of cost-cutting inspired by Obamacare. Or it is possible that computers will learn to handle almost all simple inquiries, leaving humans to deal with the most incoherent, irate customers. If that happens, Filipinos will widen their repertoire of Anglo-Saxon insults. Puede que nunca haya otra Manila. Los norteamericanos en particular, simplemente prefieren hablar con los filipinos antes que con los indios.
Pero no pueden detectar el origen del acento filipino. Sin embargo ello crea un problema. El trabajo nocturno es duro, comenta una docena de trabajadores de centros de llamadas que han salido de su turno a las 7. Los trabajadores experimentados pueden encontrar a menudo oportunidades gerenciales. Y aunque el turno de noche es duro, es mucho mejor que ser una criada Arabia Saudita. Los robots de software pueden frecuentemente manejar estas interacciones.
Eso se debe en parte a la Ley norteamericana Dodd-Frank, que los han hecho paranoicos sobre actividades de sus suplidores. Puede que ello impacte a Filipinas para bien o para mal. N del T. His arrest was not publicly acknowledged in Vienna. His replacement, Manuel Quevedo, a general in the national guard, attended OPEC and was received with the usual deference. In recent weeks the disarray has become farcical. The Maduro administration arrested more than 60 oil executives, accusing them of corruption, and replacing them with soldiers such as Mr Quevedo, who have no clue how to produce oil.
He might as well have asked people to believe in Santa Claus. The threat to Venezuelan oil production is real enough, though. Vortexa, a firm that tracks flows of crude in real time, says shipments to America, where Venezuela provides heavy crude feedstock for its own and other refineries, plunged in the three months to November 30th.
But it is losing patience. So far, the company is considered to be in default on some interest payments, though it continues to repay principal, according to rating agencies. Lee Buchheit, a debt-restructuring expert at Cleary Gottlieb, a law firm, says that so long as some cash continues to flow to bondholders, they are reluctant to use legal means to seize Venezuelan assets, as they did in Argentina.
If that calculation changes, oil firms could be loth to buy Venezuelan oil. American sanctions make things harder. As a result, production from fields it operates directly has fallen sharply. He says fields where it is in partnership with international oil companies have provided almost two-thirds of recent production, but are also starting to suffer. Las sanciones norteamericanas se endurecen. Como preludio de un golpe. How about this one? Beautiful plumage. How much is it? Look at the news headlines. My rent, heat and light are all payable in dollars.
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